2024 Oscars Predictions in Every Category After New York Film Festival – Hollywood Reporter

please pay attention: This forecast was collected by hollywood reporterScott Feinberg, executive editor of awards coverage, reflects on his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, No His personal preferences. He arrives at these estimates based on consultation with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, the results of awards ceremonies that take place before the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.


perfect picture

forward runner
American fiction (Amazon/MGM)
oppenheimer (universal)
barbie (Warner Bros.)
flower moon killer (Apple/Paramount)
poor things (searchlight)
past life (A24)
artist (Netflix)
holdover (Center)
area of ​​interest (A24)
we are all strangers (searchlight)

major threats
Nyad (Netflix)
anatomy of fall (neon)
Original (neon)
rustin (Netflix)
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
may december (Netflix)

the possibilities
saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Priscilla (A24)
ferrari (neon)
taste of things (IFC)
dream scenario (A24)
dumb money (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
boy and heron (GKIDS)

can't call yet
purple colour (Warner Bros.)
iron claw (A24)
napoleon (Apple/Sony)

best director

forward runner
Greta Gerwig (barbie) – podcast
Christopher Nolan (oppenheimer,
Martin Scorsese (flower moon killer,
Jonathan Glazer (area of ​​interest,
Cord Jefferson (American fiction,

major threats
Yorgos Lanthimos (poor things,
Bradley Cooper (artist,
Alexander Payne (holdover,
celine song (past life,
Andrew Haigh (we are all strangers,
Ava DuVernay (Original,
Justin Trite (anatomy of fall,

the possibilities
Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad,
Todd Haynes (may december) – podcast
Michael Mann (ferrari,
Emerald Fennell (saltburn,
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla,
Ben Affleck (Air) – podcast
Joaquim dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse,

can't call yet
Blitz Bazavule (purple colour,
Shawn Durkin (iron claw,
Ridley Scott (napoleon,

best Actor

forward runner
Cillian Murphy (oppenheimer,
Paul Giamatti (holdover,
Bradley Cooper (artist,
colman domingo(rustin,
Leonardo Dicaprio (flower moon killer,

major threats
Jeffrey Wright (American fiction,
Andrew Scott (we are all strangers,
Nicolas Cage (dream scenario) – podcast
Barry Keoghan (saltburn,
Christian Friedel (area of ​​interest,
Adam Driver (ferrari,
Matt Damon (Air,

the possibilities
Alden Ehrenreich (fair play,
to u (past life,
Koji Yakusho (perfect day,
Benoît Magimel (taste of things,
Gael García Bernal (cassandro,
Paul Dano (dumb money,
Taron Egerton (tetris) – podcast

can't call yet
Zac Efron (iron claw,
Joaquin Phoenix (napoleon,

best Actress

forward runner
Annette Bening (Nyad,
Emma Stone (poor things) – podcast
Margot Robbie (barbie) – podcast
Lily Gladstone (flower moon killer,
Carey Mulligan (artist) – podcast

major threats
Natalie Portman (may december) – podcast
Sandra Huller (anatomy of fall,
Greta Lee (past life,
Kelly Spaeny (Priscilla,
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Original) – podcast

the possibilities
Helen Mirren (golda) – podcast
Eve Hewson (flora and son,
Leonie Benes (teacher's lounge,
Phoebe Dynevor(fair play,
Jodie Comer (bike rider) – podcast

can't call yet
Fantasia Barrino (purple colour,

Best Supporting Actor

forward runner
Robert Downey Jr. ,oppenheimer,
Ryan Gosling (barbie,
Mark Ruffalo (poor things,
Sterling K. brown(American fiction) – podcast
Charles Melton (may december,

major threats
Robert De Niro (flower moon killer) – podcast
Jesse Plemons (flower moon killer) – podcast
Willem Dafoe (poor things) – podcast
John Magaro (past life,
Matt Damon (oppenheimer,
Chris Messina (Air,

the possibilities
Jacob Elordi (Priscilla,
Glenn Howerton (Blackberry,
Jon Bernthal (Original,
Dominic Cessa (holdover,
eddie marson(fair play,

can't call yet
colman domingo(purple colour,
Corey Hawkins (purple colour) – podcast
Tahar Rahim (napoleon,
Jeremy Allen White (iron claw,

best Supporting Actress

forward runner
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (holdover,
Jodie Foster (Nyad) – podcast
Julianne Moore (may december,
Sandra Huller (area of ​​interest,
Rosamund Pike (saltburn) – podcast

major threats
Penelope Cruz (ferrari) – podcast
Leslie Uggams (American fiction,
Erica Alexander (American fiction,
Juliette Binoche (taste of things,
Emily Blunt (oppenheimer,
Viola Davis (Air,

the possibilities
Claire Foy (we are all strangers) – podcast
Issa Rae (American fiction) – podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (American fiction) – podcast
America Ferrera (barbie,
Patricia Clarkson (Monica) – podcast
Niecy Nash-Bates (Original,
Julian Nicholson (dream scenario,

can't call yet
Halle Bailey (purple colour,
Danielle Brooks (purple colour,
His (purple colour) – podcast
Taraji P. Henson (purple colour) – podcast
Lily James (iron claw) – podcast
Vanessa Kirby (napoleon,
Maura Tierney (iron claw,

Best Adapted Screenplay

forward runner
American fiction (Cord Jefferson)
oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
flower moon killer (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese)
poor things (Tony McNamara)
area of ​​interest (Jonathan Glazer)

major threats
we are all strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
Original (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)

the possibilities
Nyad (Julia Cox)
dumb money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Shuker Blum)
ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
bike rider (Jeff Nichols)
Are you there God? It's me, Margaret (Kelly Framon Craig)

can't call yet
purple colour (Marcus Gardley)

Best Original Screenplay

forward runner
barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) – Podcast (Gerwig)
past life (Celine song)
holdover (David Hemingson)
anatomy of fall (Arthur Harari and Justin Triott)
teacher's lounge (Ilker Catak and Johannes Duncker)

major threats
saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
artist (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
fair play (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)
dream scenario (Christopher Borgli)

the possibilities
may december (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanic)
rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breese)
cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) – Podcast (Williams)
flora and son (John Carney)

can't call yet
iron claw (Sean Durkin)
napoleon (David Scarpa)

Best International Feature

forward runner
area of ​​interest (United Kingdom)
taste of things (France)
teacher's lounge (Germany)
perfect day (Japan)
20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

can't call yet
Io Capitano (Italy)
Devbhoomi (Iceland)
maybe (Australia)
ice society (Spain)
fallen leaves (Finland)
lessons from bloga (Bulgaria)
four daughters (Tunisia)
about hay (turkey)
thunder (Switzerland)
mother of all lies (Morocco)

Best Documentary Feature

forward runner
American Symphony (Netflix)
city ​​of kokomo (Magnolia)
beyond utopia (side of the road)
20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
deepest breath (Netflix)

major threats
eternal memory (MTV)
Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
Target (Nat Geo)
stamped from the beginning (Netflix) – Podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
still (Apple) – Podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
disappearance of shere hit (IFC)

the possibilities
Bobi Wine: The People's President (Nat Geo)
anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
everyone (Center)
king coal (Still seeking US distribution)
league (Magnolia)
Joan Baez: I'm a Noise (Magnolia)
to kill a tiger (Still seeking US distribution)

can't call yet
32 sounds (Abramorama)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
a kind detective (Magnolia)
copa 71 (Still seeking US distribution)
neglectful (Still seeking US distribution)
four daughters (Kino Lorber)
Going to Mars: Nikki Giovanni's Story (HBO)
hollywoodgate (Still seeking US distribution)
judy bloom forever (Amazon)
Lakota Nation v. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I'm everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
mother of all lies (Still seeking US distribution)
Orlando, my political biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
good hearted (Abramorama)
What happened to the blood, sweat and tears? (Abramorama)
while we watched (PBS)
your fat friend (Still seeking delivery)

Best Animated Feature

forward runner
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse (Sony)
fundamental (Pixar) – Podcast (Pete Docter)
boy and heron (GKIDS)
they shot the pianist (Sony Classics)
pneumonia (Netflix)

major threats
super mario bros movie (lights)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (most important)

can't call yet
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibertia (GKIDS)
first slam dunk (GKIDS)
leo (Netflix)
migration (lights)
robot dreams (neon)
speed breaker (IFC)
Suzume (toho)
trolls band together (DreamWorks)
Desire (disney)

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